With the war in Yemen well past its hundredth day, confusion persists as to the underlying causes of the conflict. Far from a sectarian proxy war between Shafi‘is under the patronage of Saudi Arabia and Zaydis backed ... more abstractWith the war in Yemen well past its hundredth day, confusion persists as to the underlying causes of the conflict. Far from a sectarian proxy war between Shafi‘is under the patronage of Saudi Arabia and Zaydis backed by Iran, as the mainstream media would have it, the hostilities are rooted in local quarrels over power sharing, resources and subnational identities. These wrangles, in turn, are part of a broader negotiation process among domestic forces over a new social contract after the 2011 removal of the long-time president, ‘Ali ‘Abdallah Salih. At the core of this struggle lies a dispute about the future state structure, which provided the catalyst for the breakdown of the post-Salih transition road map sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the ensuing escalation to full-blown interstate war.

Middle East Studies, Federalism, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Middle East Politics, and 3 more

Publication Date: Jul 20, 2015

Publication Name: Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP)

Saudi Arabia and Egypt have professed their readiness to mount a high-risk ground invasion, which could easily embroil both sides in a stalemate. A power-sharing agreement is the only way to ensure stability in Yemen,... more abstractSaudi Arabia and Egypt have professed their readiness to mount a high-risk ground invasion, which could easily embroil both sides in a stalemate. A power-sharing agreement is the only way to ensure stability in Yemen, amid the continuing power struggle for control of the state.

Middle East Studies, Yemen, Middle East Politics, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Yemen War, and 1 more

Publication Name: Al-Araby al-Jadeed

In the night from 25 to 26 March, a Saudi-led coalition of Sunni Arab states has launched operation ‘asifat al-hazm (Decisive Storm) – ostensibly to save the Republic of Yemen from the Zaydi Shi’a Huthi ‘rebels’ and r... more abstractIn the night from 25 to 26 March, a Saudi-led coalition of Sunni Arab states has launched operation ‘asifat al-hazm (Decisive Storm) – ostensibly to save the Republic of Yemen from the Zaydi Shi’a Huthi ‘rebels’ and restore the legitimate rule of president-in-exile ‘Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. In reality, however, the nocturnal aerial bombardments have exacerbated and regionalised a protracted domestic power struggle that has emerged since the negotiated resignation of perennial strongman Ali Abdallah Salih in 2011. Much worse even, the poorest country on the Arabian Peninsula is now headed for a humanitarian catastrophe of devastating proportions.

Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Yemen War, and Yemen politics

Publication Date: Apr 2, 2015

Publication Name: LSE Middle East Centre Blog

After ten months of deliberations, Yemen’s 565-member National Dialogue Conference (NDC) closed its doors on January 25, 2014. The NDC was the flagship of Yemen’s negotiated transition process. Jamal Benomar, the UN S... more abstractAfter ten months of deliberations, Yemen’s 565-member National Dialogue Conference (NDC) closed its doors on January 25, 2014. The NDC was the flagship of Yemen’s negotiated transition process. Jamal Benomar, the UN Special Adviser for Yemen, widely advertised the transition as a model for averting a Syria-style civil war in the violence-riddled Arabian republic. He pronounced the NDC an ‘unprecedented achievement in the history of Yemen’—nothing short of a ‘miracle’—and described it as ‘the most genuine, transparent and inclusive national dialogue the region has ever seen.’ The trajectory of Yemen’s transition, however, is far less hopeful than the language of diplomacy suggests. Whether or not the negotiated transition has averted a civil war in Yemen remains purely speculative, and—even if it has done so indeed—is no guarantee for a peaceful future. Also, the NDC is not historically unprecedented in a country with a strong tradition of conciliatory conferences—some of which have culminated in bloodshed. Looking forward, the litmus test is thus not the consensus reached in the NDC, but whether the US$40,000,000 conference can engender tangible political, economic, legal and social reforms.

Yemen, Yemen (History), Yemen Development, Arab Spring (Arab Revolts), and Yemen politics

Publication Date: Mar 3, 2014

Publication Name: LSE Middle East Centre Blog

Only a few dictators are blessed with a security apparatus powerful enough to suppress any and all challenges to their rule. The wretched remainder have to turn to Machiavelli’s Il Principe -- a handy companion for po... more abstractOnly a few dictators are blessed with a security apparatus powerful enough to suppress any and all challenges to their rule. The wretched remainder have to turn to Machiavelli’s Il Principe -- a handy companion for political realists -- for answers to the question of how to forestall their otherwise inevitable overthrow. But does Machiavelli’s masterpiece supply the foils for the new perils that insubordinate youths pose to the Arabian emir of the early twenty-first century?

Yemen, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring (Arab Revolts), Patronage, and Yemen politics

Publication Date: Jan 2014

Publication Name: Middle East Report (MERIP), No. 269, Winter 2013

In February 2012, Yemen’s revolutionary movement achieved its first victory: the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. However, the co-option of the movement by Yemen’s key powerbrokers, regional insurgencies and d... more abstractIn February 2012, Yemen’s revolutionary movement achieved its first victory: the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. However, the co-option of the movement by Yemen’s key powerbrokers, regional insurgencies and daunting economic challenges threaten to squander the opportunity to repair Yemen’s failing social contract. Stabilisation efforts, though indispensible, must not come at the expense of a democratic and civic state.

Yemen, Middle East Politics, Arab Spring (Arab Revolts), and Yemen politics

More Info: After the Arab Spring: Power Shift in the Middle East?

Publication Date: May 2012

Publication Name: LSE Ideas Special Report: After the Arab Spring: Power Shift in the Middle East?

The current political crisis in Yemen poses the fiercest challenge to the regime of President Saleh to date. As he continues to hold on to power, Yemen is heading towards a humanitarian catastrophe. With Mr Saleh unde... more abstractThe current political crisis in Yemen poses the fiercest challenge to the regime of President Saleh to date. As he continues to hold on to power, Yemen is heading towards a humanitarian catastrophe. With Mr Saleh under medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, the international community should engage the opposition and quickly move towards a political transition.

Yemen, Middle East Politics, Arab Spring (Arab Revolts), and Yemen politics

Publication Date: Jun 2011

Publication Name: LSE Ideas!

This paper examines the charismatic authority of Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of the Lebanese Shi‘i Islamist movement Hezbollah. By drawing on the sociology of Max Weber, charisma is defined as an emotional... more abstractThis paper examines the charismatic authority of Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of the Lebanese Shi‘i Islamist movement Hezbollah. By drawing on the sociology of Max Weber, charisma is defined as an emotional leader-follower bond. The main contention of this paper is that the transition from ordinary individual to charismatic leader is proactively negotiated through ‘charismatic performances’. The attribution of semi-divine, superhuman qualities to Nasrallah does not automatically derive from his personal charismatic characteristics or the political, social and cultural environment. Instead, his charisma is primarily predicated on the manufactured fear and hatred of a purportedly evil adversary, the State of Israel, and Nasrallah’s associated narrative frame of salvation. The paper also affords an analytical space to Shi‘i mythology in enhancing Nasrallah’s charismatic authority.

Lebanon, Charisma, Hezbollah, and Hizbollah

More Info: Conference Paper

Publication Date: 2010

Publication Name: 20th Annual ASEN Conference - Nation and Charisma

2011 became a year of revolt for the Middle East and north Africa as a series of popular uprisings toppled veteran strongmen that had ruled the regions for decades. The contentious mobilisations not only repudiated or... more abstract2011 became a year of revolt for the Middle East and north Africa as a series of popular uprisings toppled veteran strongmen that had ruled the regions for decades. The contentious mobilisations not only repudiated orthodox explanations for the resilience of Arab autocracy, but radically asserted the 'political imaginary' of a sovereign and united citizenry, so vigorously encapsulated in the popular slogan al-shab yurid isqat al-nizam (the people want to overthrow the system). In the Republic of Yemen, revolting citizens precipitated the resignation of perennial President Ali Abd Allah Salih and demanded a fundamental reconfiguration of the prevailing social contract into a modern civil state (al-dawla al-madaniya al-haditha). It is tempting to situate the root causes of these historic citizen revolts in the political inertia and moral bankruptcy of (neo)patrimonial Arab autocracies, their neoliberal economic policies, unemployment and social inequality, a youth bulge or new media technologies - all of which doubtlessly constituted crucial enabling factors. For the historian, however, the story runs much deeper than such 'presentist' interpretations suggest. Adopting a dynamic, process-orientated approach, this doctoral dissertation examines why and how the revolutionary mobilisation in 2011 transpired in relation to Yemen's history of contentious politics. The narrative is built around the argument that the revolt was the result of three parallel, dynamic processes: the erratic and limited liberalisation process since Yemeni unification in 1990, the 'oligarchisation' of power sine the 1994 war, and the 'politics of calculated chaos' - a paradoxical propensity of the Salih regime to foster disorder and dissent in order to position itself as the defender of the republicanism and Yemeni unity. When regime changes in North Africa precipitated a shift in political opportunities, these processes culminated in the formation of a loose, temporary and heterogeneous opposition coalition that mounted a singular contentious challenge against the regime. Traditional powerbrokers, however, soon stifled the brief revolutionary moment as they politicised, co-opted and superseded the citizen movement. Loosely inspired by the histoire de la long duree, the thesis contextualises the emergence and trajectory of the Yemeni citizen revolt in the political economy imperatives, deep-seated regional divisions and collective memories of past regimes and revolutions, such as the pre-Islamic South Arabian kingdomes, the millennial Zaydi Imamates or the twin revolutions of the 1960s. It thereby revels some striking historical parallels to earlier episodes of contention in terms of longstanding demands, ideas and repertoires, which continue to constitute frameworks of reference for contemporary contentious politics.

Middle East Studies, Middle East History, Modern Middle East History, Yemen, Middle East Politics, and 2 more

Publication Date: Nov 2015